The "Hidden War" in Myanmar and State Collapse

Distr.: General | February 26, 2026

Sixty-first session | Agenda item 18

I. Introduction

1. Myanmar enters 2026 in a state of protracted humanitarian emergency. The conflict between the military junta and various armed resistance groups has reached a stalemate that is causing unprecedented civilian displacement and economic deterioration.

2. The Task Force highlights that the junta has increasingly relied on indiscriminate airstrikes and heavy artillery against villages to compensate for its loss of ground control, targeting schools, hospitals, and places of worship.

II. Findings on Displacement and Repression

3. Escalating Airstrikes: Since late 2025, there has been a 50% increase in air-delivered munitions on civilian areas. These attacks are often followed by ground troops engaging in "scorched earth" operations, burning entire villages to the ground.

4. Economic Strangulation: The military’s control over banking and fuel imports is being used to prevent humanitarian aid from reaching areas controlled by the opposition. This has led to a collapse in the right to health and food for millions in rural zones.

5. Transnational Crime: The breakdown of the rule of law has allowed for the explosion of "cyber-scam" centers and drug trafficking along the borders, where thousands are held in conditions of modern slavery.

III. Legal Recommendations

• Global Jet Fuel Sanctions: Legally mandate an immediate global ban on the sale and transfer of aviation fuel to the Myanmar military to ground the fleet responsible for civilian massacres.

• Non-Recognition of Junta Elections: International legal bodies must issue an advisory opinion stating that any elections held by the junta in 2026 lack the legal legitimacy required by the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.

• Cooperation with the IIMM: Member states should pass domestic laws that facilitate the sharing of financial data with the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) to track the junta’s offshore wealth.

• Cross-Border Aid Legalization: Recognize the legal right of neighboring states to facilitate cross-border humanitarian aid without the junta’s consent, invoking the principle of "necessity" under international law.